Bill Bonner e o "fundo"

O comentário desta manhã do sempre bem disposto Bill Bonner.

The Dow is down near 6,500. Only 1,500 points to go. At least, that was our guess a few years ago. We figured that the Dow would have to go to 5,000 in order to get down to real bottom prices.

Will the bear market finally be over then? Nope. That's just where you can begin looking for a bottom. Remember, markets tend to overshoot.

So far, the Dow has wiped out 43 years of gains. Adjusted for inflation, it was at this level back when the Beach Boys and the Beatles were just starting out. Actually, we don't remember when the Beach Boys and the Beatles began...but it must have been in the md- '60s.

Back in '66, the Dow hit a high for the cycle. It had been going up since the bottom in 1949. After the peak in '66, it retreated...and then staged another attack on the summit two years later. But inflation was getting pumped up too...and in real terms, the '68 high failed to better the peak of '66.

From '66 to '82 it was down, down, down. Then, Business Week threw in the towel: "The Death of Equities" said the cover story. Then, it was up, up, up...until...well, you remember the rest.

We only bring this up to warn readers: these major cycles take time. So far, the Dow has only gotten down to the '66 TOP. Now, it has to get to the '82 BOTTOM...adjusted for inflation. Where would that be?

Well....as we recall, the Dow was barely at 1,000 when the bull market began. And if adjust that to consumer price inflation, we come to a 2,000 - 3,000.

Will it get there? Who knows?