A estrela da morte e a economia

Este artigo fez soltar o geek que há em mim:

To maintain order, the Emperor would generally need a MASSIVE, MASSIVE bureaucracy. The Old Republic built up a serviceable one over thousands of years, but that took a lot of time, money and effort, and in the end it was bloated, ineffective, and ultimately subverted against the Old Republic.

The more you spend on bureaucracy, the less control you have directly over your Empire. The less you spend on bureaucracy, the more you have to tighten your grip, and the more star systems slip through your fingers.

So, the Emperor and Tarkin focus on making one really huge, high-impact investment: The Death Star. They throw in Alderaan as part of that investment. This doomsday weapon will supposedly free up their resources to spend less on administration, personnel and infrastructure, and continue to function without a Senate. It seems like a big investment until you realize how much they save by not actually having a functioning government.

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Estão de volta

Hayek Vs Keynes Round 2, o combate do século continua.



Para quem ainda não viu, fica aqui o primeiro round e o intervalo.

Via O Insurgente.



“Fight of the Century” Lyrics.

Written by John Papola and Russ Roberts

KEYNES

Here we are… peace out! great recession
thanks to me, as you see, we’re not in a depression
Recovery, destiny if you follow my lesson
Lord Keynes, here I come, line up for the procession

HAYEK
We brought out the shovels but we’re still in a ditch…
And still digging. don’t you think that it’s time for a switch…
From that hair of the dog. Friend, the party is over.
The long run is here. It’s time to get sober!

KEYNES
Are you kidding? my cure works perfectly fine…
have a look, the great recession ended back in ’09.
Surely, I deserve credit. Things would have been worse
All the estimates prove it—I’ll quote chapter and verse

HAYEK
Econometricians, they’re ever so pious
Are they doing real science or confirming their bias?
Their “Keynesian” models are tidy and neat
But that top down approach is a fatal conceit

REFRAIN
Which way should we choose?
more bottom up or more top down
…the fight continues…
Keynes and Hayek’s second round

it’s time to weigh in…
more from the top or from the ground
…lets listen to the greats
Keynes and Hayek throwing down

KEYNES
we could have done better, had we only spent more
Too bad that only happens when there’s a World War
You can carp all you want about stats and regression
Do you deny World War II cut short the Depression?

HAYEK
Wow. One data point and you’re jumping for joy
the Last time I checked, wars only destroy
There was no multiplier, consumption just shrank
As we used scarce resources for every new tank

Pretty perverse to call that prosperity
Rationed meat, Rationed butter… a life of austerity
When that war spending ended your friends cried disaster
yet the economy thrived and grew ever faster

KEYNES
You too only see what you want to see
The spending on war clearly goosed GDP
Unemployment was over, almost down to zero
That’s why I’m the master, that’s why I’m the hero

HAYEK
Creating employment’s a straigtforward craft
When the nation’s at war, and there’s a draft
If every worker was staffed in the army and fleet
We’d be at full employment with nothing to eat

REFRAIN

HAYEK
jobs are the means, not the ends in themselves
people work to live better, to put food on the shelves
real growth means production of what people demand
That’s entrepreneurship not your central plan

KEYNES
My solution is simple and easy to handle..
its spending that matters, why’s that such a scandal?
The money sloshes through the pipes and the sluices
revitalizing the economy’s juices

it’s just like an engine that’s stalled and gone dark
To bring it to life, we need a quick spark
Spending’s the life blood that gets the flow going
Where it goes doesn’t matter, just get spending flowing

HAYEK
You see slack in some sectors as a “general glut”
But some sectors are healthy, and some in a rut
So spending’s not free – that’s the heart of the matter
too much is wasted as cronies get fatter.

The economy’s not a car, there’s no engine to stall
no expert can fix it, there’s no “it” at all.
The economy’s us, we don’t need a mechanic
Put away the wrenches, the economy’s organic

REFRAIN

KEYNES
so what would you do to help those unemployed?
this is the question you seem to avoid
when we’re in a mess, would you just have us wait?
Doing nothing until markets equil-i-brate?

HAYEK
I don’t want to do nothing, there’s plenty to do
The question I ponder is who plans for who?
Do I plan for myself or leave it to you?
I want plans by the many and not by the few.

We shouldn’t repeat what created our troubles
I want real growth not just a series of bubbles
Let’s stop bailing out losers and let prices work
If we don’t try to steer them they won’t go berserk

KEYNES
Come on, Are you kidding? Don’t Wall Street’s gyrations
Challenge your world view of self-regulation?
Even you must admit that the lesson we’ve learned
Is more oversight’s needed or else we’ll get burned

HAYEK
Oversight? The government’s long been in bed
With the Wall Street execs and the firms that they’ve led
Prosperity’s all about profit and loss
When you bail out the losers there’s no end to the cost

the lesson I’ve learned? It’s how little we know,
the world is complex, not some circular flow
the economy’s not a class you can master in college
to think otherwise is the pretense of knowledge

REFRAIN

KEYNES
You get on your high horse and you’re off to the races
I look at the world on a case by case basis
When people are suffering I roll up my sleeves
And do what I can to cure our disease

The future’s uncertain, our outlooks are frail
Thats why free markets are so prone to fail
In a volatile world we need more discretion
So state intervention can counter depression

HAYEK
People aren’t chessmen you can move on a board
at your whim–their dreams and desires ignored
With political incentives, discretion’s a joke
The dials you’re twisting… are just mirrors and smoke

the market’s a process where we can discover
the most valuable ways to serve one another
we need stable rules and real market prices
so prosperity emerges and cuts short the crisis

REFRAIN
Which way should we choose?
more bottom up or more top down
the fight continues…
Keynes and Hayek’s second round

it’s time to weigh in…
more from the top or from ground
…lets listen to the greats
Keynes and Hayek throwing down

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19 salvadores +1

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Happy moments

Já tinha saudades destas conversas de Bernanke

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GS trading results

A Bloomberg reporta que a Goldman Sachs teve apenas 25 dias de perdas durante todo o ano de 2010. Um resultado impressionante qualquer que seja o padrão de medida.

No entanto pode ser mais fácil do que parece, até já deixei aqui um video com a estratégia a seguir.

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Buy the dip

Com o DJIA acima de 11200 e o SP500 acima dos 1205 parece que o mercado está pronto a ir testar os máximos do mês passado. Enquanto escrevo isto o próprio DAX já fez mais um máximo relativo. Uma boa altura para partilhar então este vídeo:



A verdade é que o mercado parece estar à beira do abismo. Entrei longo na terça, em pequeníssimas posições de DJIA e prata que isto o que tem de ser tem muita força mas estou cada vez mais convicto de um 2008 reloaded para 2011.

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QE para tótós

O que é Quantitative Easing? Tudo explicado em 5 minutos.



Are you shitting me?

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James Bond enfrenta a recessão

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The government can

Via A arte da fuga.

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Hayek Vs Keynes rap

A continuação do grande êxito.

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Central Banking for dummies

Brevemente nas livrarias:

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Stress Tests

A banca nacional superou com sucesso o primeiro teste de stress.

Enquanto no resto da Europa os testes de stress se limitam a formulação de questões teóricas e tentativas de perceber como eventualmente as instituições financeiras irão comportar-se nesses acontecimentos hipotéticos, em Portugal apesar de estarmos à beira do abismo deu-se um passo em frente na realização dos testes de stress à banca nacional.

Assim, pegou-se no maior banco privado nacional e tentaram perceber, não em formulações hipotéticas, mas sim com recurso a boatos massivamente difundidos por sms e emails de que o mesmo iria falir, para testar de uma assentada como o mesmo se iria comportar e testar também o risco sistémico a todas as outras instituições financeiras nacionais.

É com alegria que podemos afirmar que o sistema bancário nacional é robusto e está preparado para qualquer acontecimento menos positivo que possa ocorrer. Não houve levantamentos massivos da instituição em causa, as acções tiveram uma variação pouco significativa no suposto dia D e nem qualquer outro banco nacional foi afectado com o eventual risco sistémico que tal falência iria exacerbar.

Em Portugal não se brinca com coisas sérias, quando é para testar é logo em grande nem que com isso se possa deitar abaixo todo um sistema financeiro com o simples teste se o mesmo é robusto ou não.

Mais uma vez damos cartas a nível internacional de como se devem fazer as coisas. Contudo a Europa rapidamente já veio afirmar que não irá fazer testes tão rigorosos em nenhum outro país pois nenhum deles tem um sistema financeiro tão robusto e de tão boa saúde como o Português, que consiga superar um teste de stress desta magnitude.

Via Caldeirão de Bolsa.

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O problema grego

Para que até a nossa classe política perceba:

The Greek Crisis Explained, Episode 1 from NOMINT on Vimeo.

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Umas regras

Por Dennis Gartman.

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Frase do dia

Sobre Jim Cramer, vi este comentário num forum da internet:

Watching Cramer is like watching a protestor poor gasoline on his head and then setting himself on fire.

You know there's a greater purpose here but for the life of you, you can't figure it out.

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Vitimas esquecidas

Numa altura em que as mais altas personalidades se desdobram em acusações aos especuladores pelos problemas de Portugal e Grécia convém não esquecer a ultima grande vítima portuguesa dos especuladores. Afinal de contas o negócio da senhora só falhou porque os malvados pararam de lhe emprestar dinheiro.

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UE processa Goldman Sachs

Durão Barroso afirmou que estes tipos da Goldman Sachs são os verdadeiros culpados pela erupção dos vulcões islandeses:

In a statement delivered in Romansh, the official EU language of the month, Barroso said, “We have uncovered evidence that this so-called ‘natural disaster’, which is costing the EU hundreds of millions of Euros, is in fact an Act of Goldman, and we intend to hold the Zionist-American cabal in charge of the firm accountable.” “First the profligate Americans drag the world into a near-depression and now they crap all this ash on us. Who the hell do they think they are?” added Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou from Athens, where he was chairing a conference on Greek sovereign debt entitled, “How American Speculators Forced Us to Cook the Books, Lie to Our European Partners, and Pretend We Don’t Need A Massive Bailout”.

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É de arrasar

Mais em BadBoyTrader

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Tio Patinhas e a Inflação

Não sei se sou o único mas quando era pequeno adorava o Tio Patinhas. Mesmo o Tio Patinhas e não os livros genéricos do "Patinhas" em que apareciam todos menos o verdadeiro Tio Patinhas.

Não gostava do Patacôncio, o Pato Donald sempre o achei meio parvo e o Mickey lá se aturava. O que menos gostava era o Gastão e os Metralhas que andavam sempre a querer gamar o Tio Patinhas.

Agora que já sabem que sempre fui uma criança perturbada deixo-vos com uma lição sobre a inflação do próprio Tio Patinhas. Eu acho que isto é dos Duck Tales mas não me lembro deste episódio em Portugal.



Já vos disse que adorava o Tio Patinhas? Um tipo com medo do "dinheiro fácil"... realmente cresci com valores que hoje são considerados estranhos.

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Hayek Vs Keynes rap

Via O Insurgente.


We’ve been going back and forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits

[Keynes Sings:]
John Maynard Keynes, wrote the book on modern macro
The man you need when the economy’s off track, [whoa]
Depression, recession now your question’s in session
Have a seat and I’ll school you in one simple lesson

BOOM, 1929 the big crash
We didn’t bounce back—economy’s in the trash
Persistent unemployment, the result of sticky wages
Waiting for recovery? Seriously? That’s outrageous!

I had a real plan any fool can understand
The advice, real simple—boost aggregate demand!
C, I, G, all together gets to Y
Make sure the total’s growing, watch the economy fly

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits

You see it’s all about spending, hear the register cha-ching
Circular flow, the dough is everything
So if that flow is getting low, doesn’t matter the reason
We need more government spending, now it’s stimulus season

So forget about saving, get it straight out of your head
Like I said, in the long run—we’re all dead
Savings is destruction, that’s the paradox of thrift
Don’t keep money in your pocket, or that growth will never lift…

because…

Business is driven by the animal spirits
The bull and the bear, and there’s reason to fear its
Effects on capital investment, income and growth
That’s why the state should fill the gap with stimulus both…

The monetary and the fiscal, they’re equally correct
Public works, digging ditches, war has the same effect
Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth
The multiplier driving higher the economy’s health

And if the Central Bank’s interest rate policy tanks
A liquidity trap, that new money’s stuck in the banks!
Deficits could be the cure, you been looking for
Let the spending soar, now that you know the score

My General Theory’s made quite an impression
[a revolution] I transformed the econ profession
You know me, modesty, still I’m taking a bow
Say it loud, say it proud, we’re all Keynesians now

We’ve been goin’ back n forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Keynes] I made my case, Freddie H
Listen up , Can you hear it?

Hayek sings:

I’ll begin in broad strokes, just like my friend Keynes
His theory conceals the mechanics of change,
That simple equation, too much aggregation
Ignores human action and motivation

And yet it continues as a justification
For bailouts and payoffs by pols with machinations
You provide them with cover to sell us a free lunch
Then all that we’re left with is debt, and a bunch

If you’re living high on that cheap credit hog
Don’t look for cure from the hair of the dog
Real savings come first if you want to invest
The market coordinates time with interest

Your focus on spending is pushing on thread
In the long run, my friend, it’s your theory that’s dead
So sorry there, buddy, if that sounds like invective
Prepared to get schooled in my Austrian perspective

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits

The place you should study isn’t the bust
It’s the boom that should make you feel leery, that’s the thrust
Of my theory, the capital structure is key.
Malinvestments wreck the economy

The boom gets started with an expansion of credit
The Fed sets rates low, are you starting to get it?
That new money is confused for real loanable funds
But it’s just inflation that’s driving the ones

Who invest in new projects like housing construction
The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction
The savings aren’t real, consumption’s up too
And the grasping for resources reveals there’s too few

So the boom turns to bust as the interest rates rise
With the costs of production, price signals were lies
The boom was a binge that’s a matter of fact
Now its devalued capital that makes up the slack.

Whether it’s the late twenties or two thousand and five
Booming bad investments, seems like they’d thrive
You must save to invest, don’t use the printing press
Or a bust will surely follow, an economy depressed

Your so-called “stimulus” will make things even worse
It’s just more of the same, more incentives perversed
And that credit crunch ain’t a liquidity trap
Just a broke banking system, I’m done, that’s a wrap.

We’ve been goin’ back n forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
[Keynes] No it’s the animal spirits

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