Ainda esta semana perguntava o Sérgio sobre o nosso tecto da dívida e já os tipos da Moody’s (que como podem imaginar frequentam assiduamente o Inflaccionista) reagiram ao comentário do Sérgio.
Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook on the government of Portugal's Aa2 ratings to negative from stable. The rating action reflects both the structural economic challenges facing the country, which have been exacerbated by the global crisis, and the apparent lack of motivation for policymakers to address them.
[…]
Moody's says that the most likely outcome for Portugal is a slow but inexorable decline, where growth remains sluggish, thereby stalling incomes, and where debt continues to build over time. Indeed, Moody's main concern is slow growth potential, which the rating agency attributes to the unwillingness of successive governments to take steps to restore competitiveness. The competitiveness gap is also generally seen as the cause of Portugal's large current-account deficits. Should this situation continue, the trend growth rate in the economy is likely to remain relatively low, thereby limiting the government's ability to 'grow' out of its debt problems even when the post-crisis recovery gets underway.
[…]
In the first decade of the single currency union, Moody's notes that Portugal's budget failed to meet the Growth and Stability Pact criteria multiple times and the authorities relied heavily on one-off measures. When the budget fell below the Pact's 3% ceiling, efforts were not made to move it upwards.
Não temos tecto mas quem empresta tem olhos na cara. O TGV e Alcochete lá vão custar mais uns milhões de acordo com o aumento do risco que é hoje emprestar dinheiro à republica portuguesa.
quinta-feira, 29 de outubro de 2009
Outra vez?
segunda-feira, 26 de outubro de 2009
Só mais um bocadinho...
A CNN tem um artigo onde fala sobre o limite (auto-imposto) da dívida norte-americana está muito próximo de ser atingido.
Roughly $211 billion separates what the country owes and its self-imposed credit limit. And by Friday, after another week of massive debt sales by the Treasury Department, that gap will likely have narrowed considerably. It is now expected that the $12.104 trillion debt ceiling could be breached by the end of November.
Obviamente, nada de preocupante:
It is also expected that lawmakers will raise the ceiling, as they have done more than 90 times since 1940 -- eight of them since 2002.
Conhecer e Vencer a Crise
Aqui o vosso querido autor do Inflaccionista vai estar no próximo mês de Novembro em mais uma acção de formação da ACE. O curso dado vai ser o Conhecer e Vencer a Crise no dia 14 de Novembro pelas 14h30 na Amadora.
Inscrevam-se que posso dizer, como parte completamente interessada, que o curso é um bom curso.
quarta-feira, 21 de outubro de 2009
terça-feira, 20 de outubro de 2009
Pensamento do dia
In 1933 F.D. Roosevelt did not stop at the mere confiscation of the constitutionally mandated gold coins of the realm. He sent them to the refinery in order to melt them down. He wanted to expunge the evidence from history that this great republic once had the largest pool of circulating gold coins anywhere, ever. Roosevelt betrayed his oath that he would uphold the U.S. Constitution and went ahead to rob the citizenry by calling in the gold replacing it with Federal Reserve notes, the value of which he promptly cried down by 56 percent, under the disguise of monetary reform.
Antal E. Fekete, The gold basis is dead
Retirado do seu mais recente artigo onde comenta alguns rumores sobre o ouro vindos de Wall Street. Uma leitura interessante para quando não se passa nada no mercado além do renovar de máximos históricos do ouro.
segunda-feira, 12 de outubro de 2009
Apesar da crise já ter passado...
On Wednesday, Latvia tried to raise a trivial amount of money. It offered $17 million worth of 6-month bonds. How likely is it that Latvia will default before Easter? We don't know, but investors judged it not worth the risk. Not only did the bond auction failed, it failed with no bids.
Bill Bonner, Daily Reckoning.
terça-feira, 6 de outubro de 2009
Ferias
Depois de duas semanas de descanso bem agradáveis parece que estou finalmente de volta, as condições meteorológicas em Lisboa não me deixam particularmente feliz de ter regressado. Ao menos parece que a recessão acabou mesmo enquanto estava de férias.