quarta-feira, 10 de fevereiro de 2010

Pura loucura

A Alemanha prepara-se para salvar a Grécia. Em Janeiro tinha dito que as hipóteses de tal acontecer seriam 50/50 na esperança que houvesse ainda algum bom senso naquelas cabecinhas da europa central e que se tivesse aprendido algo de util na experiência americana de 2008 e os seus bail-outs. O que dizer? Sou um optimista...

Este artigo intitulado Deconstructing Europe: How A €20 Billion Liquidity Crisis Is Set To Become A €1.6 Trillion Funding Crisis faz uma análise pertinente à situação actual com a qual concordo:

Yet the immediate test, as expected, is once again focused on the PIIGS (or GIPSI if one is so inclined) acronym: it is not surprising that a decision came out today - after all there is an auction scheduled for Portugal just tomorrow, while Italy will test the market with a €6-8 billion auction this Friday. Absent today's (dis)information campaign, the Portuguese auction would have certainly been another failure. Yet by and far the country with biggest near-term risk is Spain, which will need to finance €30 billion in February. Subsequently, critical auctions follow in Portugal for €3.9 billion in March and in Greece for €12.4 billion in April.

But why stop here: now that all European debt will be brought to the lowest common denominator, namely the demand for German securities, which is at the heart of the backstop plan, it implies that global European funding requirements have to be evaluated in total, and not piecemeal as we did until today.

It is sheer lunacy if the ECB and Germany believe that the guarantee program will not wreak havoc on their plans to quietly fund this massive hole.

Tal como em 1971 a Europa tinha agora a escolha entre fechar os olhos ou assumir que a moeda utilizada não tinha qualquer futuro. Tal como em 1971 preferiram fechar os olhos e chutar para o futuro. Acontece que o "futuro" de 1971 chegou agora... o futuro de 2010 pode não demorar tanto a chegar.

1 comentário:

ricardo disse...

"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." -Ludwig Von Mises