terça-feira, 15 de dezembro de 2009

Cenários Inflacionistas (II)

Para contrapor ao artigo que deixei aqui há dias do Rick Ackerman deixo este do Gary North:

Why the Deflationist Argument Is Wrong in Both Theory and Practice

The deflationists do not understand these crucial facts:

1. the FED is 100% in control over the size of M1.
2. The FED has chosen to imitate post-1990 Japan.
3. Japan has has not had a year since 1990 in which consumer prices fell into negative territory by as much as 2%.
4. The money supply shrank in the Great Depression because 9,000+ banks failed.
5. The government passed the FDIC law in 1934.
6. The money supply has not shrunk since then.

PS: Confesso ter alguns problemas com a primeira afirmação. Enviei uma mensagem ao autor sobre o assunto, se receber resposta publico.

1 comentário:

Nuno Branco disse...

O autor não me quis responder por razões comerciais (o negócio dele é vender o seu conhecimento e como tal compreendo perfeitamente) e por isso deixo apenas aqui o mesmo comentário que lhe enviei a ele para se mais alguém quiser comentar a linha de raciocinio.

You say that "the FED is 100% in control over the size of M1." The logical outcome of this statement is that hyperinflation will only happen if the central bank wants it to happen.

Since hyperinflation would destroy the USD (and the power of the FED is closely connected to the USD) there is no way in hell that the FED is going to do this on purpose, therefore we need not worry about holding dollars, they are safe (taking into account the self-interest of the FED).

Now, is this really true? Are the hyperinflationists wrong when they say that if foreign investors pull out of the treasury market the FED would have to monetize (even more) debt and create hyper-inflation?