Um funeral para o euro?

Um bom artigo de Alex Gloy sobre o futuro do euro. As minhas ideias encontram-se com as dele em vários pontos, nomeadamente na ideia de ser a Alemanha a primeira a avançar para o retorno à moeda própria.

Assuming the end game is a break-up of the Euro-zone, which is the least chaotic option?

Imagine a single “weak” country leaving the Euro-zone and introducing its own currency. Bank depositors would face a forced conversion of their Euro savings into the new, weaker alternative. A bank run (into gold or Euro deposits at banks in other countries) would be guaranteed to ensue. Bank runs could destabilize other indebted countries, too.

However, should Germany (plus Netherlands, Finland?) quit the Euro zone and introduce their own respective currencies, the majority of savers in remaining Euro-zone countries might think twice before moving their savings into new and unproven currencies. Of course, a New Deutschmark would appreciate versus the “Mediterranean” Euro and lead to problems for German exports. But those companies could be compensated by currency gains stemming from paying old Euro debt with New Deutschmark.