sexta-feira, 23 de abril de 2010

Manipulação nos metais precisos

É tema recorrente de tempos a tempos por aqui e decidi voltar a falar nele devido a um debate bastante interessante sobre as conclusões a tirar do último inquérito da CFTC.

Recomendo a leitura deste artigo do CEO da BullionVault.

Futures and forwards work hand-in-hand. Futures give the bank the opportunity to approximately hedge out any price risk they have taken on a specific forward trade. Futures are standardized, highly liquid and easily traded in volume. The beauty of futures is that all the gradual liquidity of three months of forward deliveries on specific dates can be concentrated in a standardized futures contract which you can deal with any trader, because all the contracts expire on the same day and with the same terms, regardless of which trader you choose. This exchangeability is the source of their liquidity.

Forwards, on the other hand, are hopelessly illiquid. Each was custom built 'over the counter' for a specific settlement day. But forwards really are deals in physical gold – which will settle as Good Delivery bars, on almost every day of the year. So the flow of forwards through the vaulting system is smoother than the flow of futures through a futures exchange, which rush to close en-masse at expiry.

E a resposta de Adrian Douglas:

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in its Q2 2009 OTC Derivatives report gives the notional value of gold forwards and swaps as $179 billion and for silver as $101 billion. In weight terms this is 193 million ozs of gold and 7,481 million ozs of silver. Over the last 50 years all large above ground inventories of silver have been drawn down so the only legitimate sellers of silver forwards on a consistent basis have to be mining companies. The US Geological Survey tells us that in 2009 the total silver reserves on planet earth were 8,400 million ozs. If the LBMA is not a paper market we would have to believe that mining companies have already sold forward 89% of the silver reserves of the world! Yet if we look at the major silver mining companies their production is largely unhedged. So who could possibly have sold forward 89% of the economically mineable silver on the planet if it was not the entities who actually own it? It must be entities who don’t own it. The inevitable conclusion is that the LBMA forward market is a paper market and is not backed by future production.

E para finalizar este artigo que critica fortemente a GATA pelas "teorias de conspiração" e de confundir deliberadametne o publico, e a respectiva resposta.

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